Read and discuss what you think!
The TASK seemed SIMPLE enough.
Then Vicè-President Atiku Abubakar was at the height of his Political Power. Everywhere you went within the circles and corridors of leadership, the larger-than-life figure of Atiku loomed.
It was only a matter of time you would have thought, that he would become the next President after President Olusegun Obasanjo.
This job should be a CRUISE, shouldn't it?
Atiku had name, face and stature recognition across the country. Even the female population had their oohs, aahs and moans. It was "Ateeekuuu!" everywhere.
Atiku himself was a determined and somewhat fatalistic believer that "He should and would be the ideal unifying President for Nigeria".
Do not blame a man who strategically had a WIFE from each of the Compass Points for having such unwavering belief.
BUT THERE WERE TWO PROBLEMS. One was Natural and the other was Contrived.
The Natural was the BIGGER problem and the more difficult to barrel through.
ATIKU's biggest problem was COMPLETE acceptability to the LARGE and influential HARD NORTH.
This is that GATEKEEPING BLOC held together by RELIGIOUS, MILITARY and GRASSROOTS ideals.
ATIKU was deemed too LIBERAL and too FLEXIBLE for his popularity with and in the SOUTH.
The HARD NORTH would have to be NEGOTIATED with PROMISES MADE and cast in STONE.. but there were other more-assured PLAYERS they could back THOUGH such individuals lacked full National Reach and Appeal.
The Largest Single Voting Bloc in Nigerian Elections would be SPLIT. And this would not serve ATIKU ABUBAKAR well.
TODAY, I believe that problem still lingers though there is NO DOUBT about his Capacity, Experience and Capability to lead Nigeria.
THEN came the HAMMER BLOW. The VENGEFUL OLUSEGUN OBASANJO factor.
Once the drama and events of the 2003 EAGLE SQUARE DEBACLE were done with and OBJ got his 2nd term, there was bloodshed everywhere associated with his Vice-President.
OBJ went ALL OUT to dismantle and weaken ATIKU politically.
ACCESS and DOORS along the corridors were SLAMMED SHUT, Atiku's SIGNATURE no longer carried the POWER and WEGHT it once did.
"ATIKU PEOPLE" were forced to "LEAVE TOWN".. OBJ's REVENGE was complete in ensuring that wherever Atiku once wielded political influence came back kowtowing to him.
THESE TWO HURDLES still remain as ATIKU bids again to be President in 2027.
ADD to that the uncertainties of PARTY PLATFORM and RUNNING MATE fuelled by the PETER OBI factor.
All within the one thing ATIKU cannot control.. TIME.
IF ATIKU is to upset the current Leadership he MUST address these hurdles and very quickly.
This includes the PETER OBI factor, all within a reasonable time frame to ensure a re-establishment of his ABILITY to WIN.
His commitment is not in doubt and neither is his capacity/experience questionable, HOWEVER...
Can ATIKU overcome his ALBATROSS and then some?
Thank Goodness, his good friend the Late Ambassador is no longer around to ask me the same question again?
I will sit this one out, sipping something sweet with Groundnuts and Killishi in the bleachers.
What do YOU think?
ATIKU ABUBAKAR... The Hurdles remain the same.
Over 20 years ago the late Ambassador asked "How can we ensure a natural succession of a Vice-President taking over the mantle at the end of term of his principal, the sitting President?".
Over 20 years ago the late Ambassador asked "How can we ensure a natural succession of a Vice-President taking over the mantle at the end of term of his principal, the sitting President?".
The TASK seemed SIMPLE enough.
Then Vicè-President Atiku Abubakar was at the height of his Political Power. Everywhere you went within the circles and corridors of leadership, the larger-than-life figure of Atiku loomed.
It was only a matter of time you would have thought, that he would become the next President after President Olusegun Obasanjo.
This job should be a CRUISE, shouldn't it?
Atiku had name, face and stature recognition across the country. Even the female population had their oohs, aahs and moans. It was "Ateeekuuu!" everywhere.
Atiku himself was a determined and somewhat fatalistic believer that "He should and would be the ideal unifying President for Nigeria".
Do not blame a man who strategically had a WIFE from each of the Compass Points for having such unwavering belief.
BUT THERE WERE TWO PROBLEMS. One was Natural and the other was Contrived.
The Natural was the BIGGER problem and the more difficult to barrel through.
ATIKU's biggest problem was COMPLETE acceptability to the LARGE and influential HARD NORTH.
This is that GATEKEEPING BLOC held together by RELIGIOUS, MILITARY and GRASSROOTS ideals.
ATIKU was deemed too LIBERAL and too FLEXIBLE for his popularity with and in the SOUTH.
The HARD NORTH would have to be NEGOTIATED with PROMISES MADE and cast in STONE.. but there were other more-assured PLAYERS they could back THOUGH such individuals lacked full National Reach and Appeal.
The Largest Single Voting Bloc in Nigerian Elections would be SPLIT. And this would not serve ATIKU ABUBAKAR well.
TODAY, I believe that problem still lingers though there is NO DOUBT about his Capacity, Experience and Capability to lead Nigeria.
THEN came the HAMMER BLOW. The VENGEFUL OLUSEGUN OBASANJO factor.
Once the drama and events of the 2003 EAGLE SQUARE DEBACLE were done with and OBJ got his 2nd term, there was bloodshed everywhere associated with his Vice-President.
OBJ went ALL OUT to dismantle and weaken ATIKU politically.
ACCESS and DOORS along the corridors were SLAMMED SHUT, Atiku's SIGNATURE no longer carried the POWER and WEGHT it once did.
"ATIKU PEOPLE" were forced to "LEAVE TOWN".. OBJ's REVENGE was complete in ensuring that wherever Atiku once wielded political influence came back kowtowing to him.
THESE TWO HURDLES still remain as ATIKU bids again to be President in 2027.
ADD to that the uncertainties of PARTY PLATFORM and RUNNING MATE fuelled by the PETER OBI factor.
All within the one thing ATIKU cannot control.. TIME.
IF ATIKU is to upset the current Leadership he MUST address these hurdles and very quickly.
This includes the PETER OBI factor, all within a reasonable time frame to ensure a re-establishment of his ABILITY to WIN.
His commitment is not in doubt and neither is his capacity/experience questionable, HOWEVER...
Can ATIKU overcome his ALBATROSS and then some?
Thank Goodness, his good friend the Late Ambassador is no longer around to ask me the same question again?
I will sit this one out, sipping something sweet with Groundnuts and Killishi in the bleachers.
What do YOU think?
He is a betrayal and can not be trusted, he's just like the former Governor of Kaduna..
ReplyDeleteSo the north think he is too liberal??
ReplyDeleteInteresting 😂
So the north think he is too liberal??
ReplyDeleteInteresting 😂
Loyalty is one trait politicians should hold dear in their political career. I wish him well, but the probability of winning President BAT is very close to zero.
ReplyDeleteAtiku WAS too liberal till he realized he wanted to inherit Buhari's bloc votes in the core NW.
ReplyDeleteHe partied openly at Ikoyi club where he has maintained membership openly for decades during his terms as VP. He held Boni Haruna down despite much opposition from core Muslim majority in Adamawa. He has or had 2 wives from the Christian South and they were at the social forefront. Had he gone with the governors in 2003, OBJ would have been a single term president with Atiku at the saddle.
Atiku however had to recalibrate when the south started to align in APC to receive the gauntlet after delivering the bridge to Aso Rock. With a southern Muslim front and center, he knew a northern Muslim will be selected because true politicians understand politics and only use sentiment, not fall for it.
He gambled with governors in 2109 to get OBJ's hall pass: fleeting, fake and not as far reaching but he needed international credence. Most governors gave Buhari his needed 3rd and kept it moving. He didn't get the core NW votes obviously and even ceded core Muslim votes in his own NE. He held on to governors in 2023 and then came Obi with strong religious and ethnic sentiment and it seems Atiku's liberalism was for nothing. He was too synthetic up north and down south. He reunited with old friends and the cabal saw continuity since their boss still had "bloc" 12 million votes even if the shape changes. But southern governors failed to sell another Fulani.
He started to morph into what others more conservative didn't even need to be. Expressing sympathy for carnivorous of cows and no words for a woman burned to her end. Christian wives ushered into the background or out of the picture. Going out of his way to still be kneeling publicly at his age. He had agreed with the cabal of the previous government and was cruising to victory but APC governors didn't want to truncate their political future so he didn't get his figurehead opposer in Ahmad. He has assumed the SE would be reasonable and align with him again but got carried away by desperately aligning with governors who weren't sure where the wind was blowing in the center and parliamentarians who passed bills that kept them out of primaries voting. Perhaps the SE panicked with his choice of VP but he also needed to finance his campaign and get bigger votes. A political juggernaut saw the 3 horse race as an opportunity. He is alleged by players to have indirectly financed number 3 so as to keep number 2 away. People receded into their ethnic or religious cocoons and he got his spread.
Today, Atiku needs to convince core northern Muslim interests in why they should risk a single term with or without his own willingness at his age for a man who will run again just as he did as a governor. Obi also has to convince the non SE voters, mainly Christian why they should vote a Fulani Muslim with a history of betrayals for convenience after riling them up for a Christian Southern presidency 4 years ago. It would be fun to see those Daddies waving flags and hearing yes sell Atiku with the promise that he ran for over 30 years to serve 4 and let people who didn't sponsor his campaign dictate his successor.
If you still think Obi will win any primaries against a living Atiku despite joining after all slots were shared and it was structured, just go and watch Zee world. This one pass you.
Atiku's problem ironically is the North and his albatross -Peter Obi.
ReplyDeleteA friend of the South but distrusted by them and despised by his beloved North.
A calculated liberal, he has boxed himself into a corner, in a nation demanding for one but stuck in their regional sensibilities.
Then there is the Obi factor..... 😁
A Northern candidate, going against a Southern incumbent, riding on the promise of a single term but in a party whose constitution doesn't recognise the North/South dichotomy in presidential rotations, is frankly something I'll personally be very interested to see them pull off, as ludicrous a that assertion is- I don't think anyone buys that.
Personally, I think Atiku and Peter Obi should let this election go and let's have the Amaechi's , Rufais etc have a go at it.